Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
