Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
